Conservatives are seizing on new data they say proves fewer young people identify as transgender — but experts warn the numbers are being twisted. Earlier this month, right-wing commentator Eric Kaufmann claimed that “trans identification is in free fall among the young.” His comments were echoed by psychologist Jean Twenge, who shared a graph suggesting the percentage of 18- to 22-year-olds identifying as trans dropped from 4.5% in 2023 to 3% in 2024, and non-binary identities from 5% to 2%.
But journalist Erin Reed called the analysis “a massive statistical error,” saying it ignored binary trans people. Activist James Billingham’s own review of the same dataset found the opposite trend, showing slight increases, not declines. Critics also note that Twenge’s study covered just two years and left major questions about how “prefer not to say” responses were treated. Gallup polls, meanwhile, show the share of U.S. adults identifying as trans has actually risen since 2022. Experts stress that fewer people “identifying” publicly doesn’t mean fewer exist; it may reflect growing fear in a hostile political climate.
