Even before any executive orders were signed in January or court rulings delivered, fear was already spreading fast through transgender communities across the U.S. Now, a new study from the University of Vermont—published in JAMA Network Open—has confirmed just how deep that fear runs.
The study, titled Access to Gender-Affirming Care and Alternatives to That Care Among Transgender Adults, surveyed 489 transgender, nonbinary, and intersex people. Every single respondent said they believed they could lose access to gender-affirming care under the changing political climate, especially under Donald Trump.
The survey was conducted between the 2024 election and Inauguration Day in 2025. More than 1 in 5 participants—over 21 percent—said they would feel suicidal if they lost access to gender-affirming care. Author Teresa Graziano recalled one respondent who said, “killing myself is easier than living without my hormones and my gender affirming care.”
Even more troubling: nearly a third said they would turn to black-market hormones or try to make their own at home if medical options disappeared. While there’s no federal ban yet on adult access to care, the Supreme Court’s recent decision in Skrmetti—upholding Tennessee’s ban on care for minors—has only increased fears that more states will follow suit. Advocates nationwide say the Vermont study mirrors broader realities. A spokesperson from Advocates for Trans Equality told The Advocate,
“Trump’s policies have consequences—all of us are less healthy and less safe, and many trans people will die without the transition-related care they need.”
Representative Becca Balint, Vermont’s first out lesbian member of Congress, said,
“The data mirrors what I am hearing directly from trans, nonbinary, gender nonconforming folks, intersex people in Vermont and their families.”
She is shocked that the statistics show over 20 percent would consider taking their own lives, but said it isn’t surprising, given the political messaging over the past two years.
Balint draws a powerful parallel between transgender health care access and reproductive freedom, saying,
“It’s the same thing: you’re talking about people having control over their own bodies.”
For many in the trans community, the message is clear: their lives, health, and future are on the line.
